Lefthander Greg Smith has often taken a back seat to more prominent, “toolsy” prospects during his brief, successful career. Despite possessing a highly successful collegiate resume, the LSU product did not hear his name called until the 6th round of the 2005 amateur draft, when the Arizona Diamondbacks selected him 171st overall. Included in the Dan Haren trade with the Oakland Athletics this past offseason, Smith was viewed as one of the lesser prospects, lacking the upside of players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Brett Anderson.

Despite modest projections, the polished lefty has performed admirably for the A’s in the early portion of the 2008 season. In 39 innings, Smith has posted a 2.54 ERA, striking out 31 batters while walking 13. So, how is Greg Smith fooling hitters in the DH league? To find out, let’s take a look at his 2008 pitch F/X data.

What Does He Throw?

gregsmithpitchmovement.jpg

 The chart on the right shows the vertical and horizontal movement (in inches) that Smith is getting on his pitches in 2008, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. The X axis shows the amount of horizontal movement on Smith’s pitches, while the Y axis shows the amount of vertical movement on the pitches. The chart is from the view of a righthanded batter, so pitches with a negative horizontal (X axis) value are tailing in on a righthanded hitter. Pitches with a low vertical (Y axis) value are moving down in the strike zone; the lower the Y value, the more downward movement the pitch has (click on the picture to see a full-size image of the chart).

As you would expect from a pitcher who has acquired the “crafty lefty” tag, Smith throws a number of pitches, five in total: a fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, and a rarely utilized cutter.

Smith gets a good bit of “tailing” action on his fastball, as it moves in on lefthanded hitters an average of 8.82 inches. That’s well above the average horizontal break on a heater (5.46 inches). 

Smith’s primary secondary pitches are his changeup and slider. Smith does a fairly solid job of “pulling the string” on his change- note how the horizontal movement on the changeup mirrors his fastball, but the cluster of changeups is lower in the zone than the cluster of fastballs. That’s exactly what you’re going for as a pitcher. Smith’s slider doesn’t really jump out at you, but is has a decent amount of tilting action, breaking down and away from lefty hitters.

Though he rarely uses it, Smith’s curveball has tremendous vertical drop, breaking downward 8.07 inches more than a ball thrown without spin would. That big 12-6 breaker looks like it could wreak havoc on lefthanded hitters. It’s an admittedly small sample size, but Smith’s tailing fastball and curve have tied up southpaws to the tune of .162/.184/.189 in 2008.

Also, note how Smith tosses in the occasional cut fastball, just to give righthanded batters something else to think about.

Another point in Smith’s favor when it comes to fooling hitters is his highly consistent release point (click on the picture for a full-sized image):

greg_smith4.gif

 Smith’s release point is nearly identical on all of his pitches. A guy who throws four pitches from the same arm slot with some regularity (while tossing in the occasional cutter) cannot make it easy for hitters to decipher between pitches.

How Hard Does He Throw It?

gregsmithvelocity.jpg

 The chart on the right shows Smith’s velocity on his pitches, in MPH.

Type    MPH    X(In.)    Z(In.)   

FB        86.96   8.82      9.33

CH       78.78    8.14      8.62

SL        81.1     0.07      3.54

CB       73.93   -2.51     -8.07

CU       84.34    -0.77      7.73

Type is the type of pitch thrown. FB=fastball,  CH=changeup, SL=slider, CB=curveball, CU=cutter. MPH is the average initial velocity of the pitch. X is the amount of horizontal movement on the pitch. Remember, a negative X value means the pitch is moving toward a righthanded batter. Z is the amount of vertical movement on the pitch. The lower the Z value, the more downward movement on the pitch.

As you can see, Smith does not exactly light up the radar guns, with an average fastball velocity of 86.96 MPH. Baseball America notes that Smith sat 88-91 MPH in 2007, but we have yet to see that sort of speed in ‘08. On the positive side, Smith does have a good deal of speed differentiation between his heater and his changeup- the change comes in 8.18 MPH slower than the fastball. With the same arm motion and similar horizontal movement as his fastball, Smith’s change could present a challenge for righthanded hitters.

How Often Does He Throw It?

gregsmithpitchselection.jpg

The above chart shows the how frequently Smith throws each of his pitches.

Smith keeps hitters off balance, throwing his fastball 51.9% of the time while mixing in plenty of changeups (21.7%) and sliders (20.1%). Smith has shown a promising curve (5.4%) and a cutter (0.9%), but he has limited the use of these two pitches. Is he saving them for later in the year, once teams have more definitive scouting reports on his repertoire? Could be.

Will Smith’s success continue, or will hitters catch up with him once the scouting reports become more concrete? The lefty has pitched over his talent level in the early going (his Fielding Independent ERA is 3.82 and his Batting Average on Balls In Play is .228), but with good control, a solid mix of pitches and a release point that does not give hitters any clues, Smith seems likely to settle in as a solid third or fourth starter.

David Golebiewski is a journalism student at Duquesne University. Reach David via email at judidave87@msn.com or golebie1029@duq.edu

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